It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
